Nigeria could experience an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths over a six-month period as the effects of El Niño intensify, according to projections attributed to the Climate Impact Lab.
The report estimates that the wider African Sahel region could record approximately 66,800 additional deaths, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half of the projected toll.
The warning comes amid concerns from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) that a particularly strong El Niño could worsen extreme temperatures, droughts and flooding in different parts of the world.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the climate phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, potentially disrupting temperatures and rainfall patterns. She urged governments and humanitarian agencies to strengthen early-warning systems and prepare measures to protect vulnerable populations.
Meanwhile, UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that worsening climate conditions could deepen food insecurity, potentially leaving about 50 million people facing increased hunger.
Fletcher also cited estimates from the African Development Bank suggesting that the crisis could cost African economies between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce gross domestic product by one to two per cent.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab reportedly projects that El Niño could contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first nine months of the period under review, from June to February. Countries in the Global South are expected to bear a disproportionate share of the impact.
In Nigeria, recent temperatures have reportedly reached 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos, according to figures attributed to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Prolonged extreme heat can increase the risk of heat exhaustion and other heat-related illnesses, while placing additional pressure on water supplies, electricity infrastructure, agriculture and the livelihoods of people who work outdoors.
The report recommends strengthening early-warning systems, establishing cooling centres and improving protection for outdoor workers to help reduce heat-related deaths.
Although El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, human-induced climate change is increasing the risks associated with rising global temperatures.
Saulo said the effects of El Niño cannot be prevented entirely, but timely preparation and coordinated action could help limit the damage and protect communities at greatest risk.
The projected death toll remains an estimate rather than a confirmed outcome, underscoring the importance of preparedness and reliable climate and health information.
