Nigeria’s oil sector recorded an estimated N1.76 trillion loss in potential revenue after failing to meet the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota for most of the period between January 2025 and January 2026.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed the country fell below its 1.5 million barrels per day target in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026, despite relatively strong global crude prices. The cumulative shortfall during the period was about 18 million barrels.
Using an average crude price of about 72 dollars per barrel, the production gap translated to roughly 1.31 billion dollars in unrealised earnings. Analysts noted that while Nigeria still generated significant oil income in 2025, the failure to meet output targets reduced what could have been earned.
Experts attributed the underperformance to persistent challenges such as oil theft, infrastructure limitations, security concerns in producing regions, delayed investments, and operational inefficiencies. They stressed that improving asset security, speeding up regulatory processes, and reactivating idle wells are critical to boosting production.
The government has set more conservative projections for 2026, but industry observers warn that meeting future targets will depend less on forecasts and more on practical steps to stabilise operations and attract sustained investment.
