When Yoweri Museveni took power in Uganda in 1986, he promised a clean break from the continent’s history of entrenched leadership. “The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power,” he said at the time.
Nearly four decades later, Museveni, now 81, is seeking a seventh term in office. For most Ugandans, he is the only president they have ever known.
Museveni rose to power after years of insurgency against autocratic governments, finally overthrowing President Tito Okello with his National Resistance Movement. His ascent was greeted with optimism both at home and abroad. Western governments praised his early efforts to restore stability, revive the economy, combat HIV and AIDS, and defeat the Lord’s Resistance Army, which had brutalised northern Uganda for nearly twenty years.
Over time, that goodwill faded. Allegations of corruption and authoritarianism increasingly came to define Museveni’s rule. Parliamentary reports accused his government of selling state enterprises at heavily discounted prices to relatives and political allies, with some proceeds allegedly embezzled.
“Corruption has been central to his rule from the beginning,” said Kristof Titeca, a professor at the University of Antwerp.
Museveni has acknowledged corruption within government but maintains that offenders have been prosecuted. Critics argue the problem has nevertheless hollowed out public services. UNICEF estimates that only one in four Ugandan children who start primary school make it to secondary education, while unemployment, particularly among young people, remains widespread.
Politically, Museveni has proved highly resilient. He has won all six elections he has contested. In 2005, parliament scrapped presidential term limits, a move critics said was designed to keep him in power indefinitely. Opposition parties have repeatedly rejected election results, citing irregularities, while authorities deny wrongdoing and security forces have frequently cracked down on protests.
One of Museveni’s most prominent challengers has been Kizza Besigye, his former personal doctor during the bush war years. Besigye later accused Museveni of corruption and human rights abuses and ran against him four times. In 2024, Besigye was arrested and now faces treason charges.
Internationally, Museveni has remained strategically relevant. Uganda has aligned itself with Western security priorities by deploying peacekeepers to Somalia and South Sudan and hosting large numbers of refugees. More recently, Museveni has deepened ties with China, Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, reducing reliance on Western partners. The discovery of major oil reserves has further strengthened his hand, leading to agreements with TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC to construct a regional export pipeline.
Museveni’s main rival in the current election is Bobi Wine, a 43 year old pop star turned opposition leader. Analysts widely expect Museveni to win, but uncertainty surrounds what comes next as the president shows signs of physical frailty.
“The big question looming over the election is the question of succession,” Titeca said, pointing to the rapid rise of Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s military chief. The opposition accuses Museveni of grooming his son for power while sidelining longtime allies from the liberation struggle.
Former newspaper editor Charles Onyango Obbo says the election is less about the final result and more about public sentiment. While Museveni appears physically weaker, Onyango Obbo believes retirement remains unlikely, noting that the president remains deeply invested in holding power.
Once celebrated as a reformer who promised to end Africa’s cycle of overstaying leaders, Museveni now embodies the very dilemma he once condemned, leaving Uganda facing an uncertain political future beyond his rule.
