Nigeria’s oil sector has lost an estimated N8.41 trillion to crude oil theft and metering failures between 2021 and July 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). In total, over 68 million barrels of crude oil were unaccounted for during this period—an amount that could have transformed Nigeria’s health, education, and infrastructure sectors.
The scale of these losses is staggering. The value of the stolen crude could have built 56,074 health centres, provided funding for 129,401 classroom blocks, or delivered over 10,000 kilometres of roads across the country. Instead, the funds disappeared into networks of theft, pipeline vandalism, and systemic corruption.
Despite these figures, regulators have celebrated recent progress. In 2021, Nigeria recorded its worst year in decades, losing 37.6 million barrels—averaging 102,900 barrels daily. By contrast, in the first seven months of 2025, losses dropped to 2.04 million barrels, averaging just 9,600 barrels daily, the lowest since 2009. The improvements have been linked to reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), military crackdowns on illegal refineries, drone surveillance, and greater community involvement in oil-producing areas.
However, experts warn that the country is not out of the woods. Oil and gas consultant Chukwuma Atuanya noted that Nigeria still falls short of its 2 million barrels per day production target by nearly 400,000 bpd. He explained that crude oil theft continues to undermine foreign exchange earnings, weaken the naira, reduce investor confidence, and fuel poverty in the Niger Delta.
Some experts are also skeptical about the accuracy of the official numbers. Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law scholar, argued that Nigeria’s weak metering and reporting systems make it difficult to know the true extent of losses. He also criticised security agencies for destroying illegal refineries without prosecuting the powerful figures behind them. His conclusion is blunt: “How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished?”
The cost of oil theft in Nigeria extends far beyond lost revenue. It worsens environmental degradation, displaces communities, fuels insecurity, and robs the government of resources that could fund critical development projects. The N8.41 trillion already lost exceeds the country’s entire 2025 health budget (N2.48tn) and is almost three times the education budget (N3.52tn).
Analysts agree that while oil theft in Nigeria may never be completely eliminated, it can be drastically reduced. This would require transparent metering systems, stronger community partnerships, tougher penalties—including jail terms for complicit officials—and genuine political will to confront the powerful interests profiting from crude oil losses.
For a nation that relies on crude oil for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings, the stakes are immense. Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s most costly and devastating self-inflicted wound.
